How to build a rolling 13-week cash flow forecast
The 13-week forecast is the standard tool for managing near-term liquidity. Here is how to structure it, drive it from real receivables and payables, and keep it rolling.
Why 13 weeks is the standard window
Thirteen weeks is one quarter at weekly resolution - long enough to see a cash squeeze coming and short enough that the numbers are grounded in actual invoices and bills rather than guesses. It is the horizon lenders, restructuring advisers, and CFOs use to manage liquidity through a tight patch.
How to structure the model
- 1Start with the current bank balance as week-zero opening cash.
- 2Lay out 13 weekly columns with beginning cash, inflows, outflows, and ending cash.
- 3Drive inflows from AR: expected collections by invoice due date and payment history.
- 4Drive outflows from AP, payroll runs, rent, debt service, and tax payments by their actual dates.
- 5Roll ending cash from one week into the next week beginning balance.
- 6Each week, drop the oldest week and add a new week 13 so the window keeps rolling.
Track actual against forecast
A forecast you never check against reality drifts. Each week, compare what actually landed to what you projected and note why collections or payments moved. Over a few cycles this tightens your assumptions - especially how quickly customers actually pay versus their terms.
| Line | Forecast | Actual | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Collections | $120,000 | $96,000 | Customers paying slower than terms |
| Payroll | $180,000 | $180,000 | On plan |
| Vendor payments | $70,000 | $55,000 | Two bills pushed a week |
How Fintra keeps the forecast live
- AR aging and invoice due dates feed the collection line automatically instead of manual estimates.
- Scheduled bills and payroll runs populate the outflow rows from the same ledger.
- The cash-flow projection updates as invoices are paid and bills are scheduled, so the forecast never goes stale.
- Scenario planning lets you branch a downside case - slower collections, a delayed raise - and see the effect on the runway.
Frequently asked questions
What is a 13-week cash flow forecast?
It is a rolling weekly projection of cash in and out over the next quarter. Each week you update actuals, roll the window forward, and re-project. It is the standard tool for managing short-term liquidity because it shows exactly which week cash gets tight, not just the monthly average.
How is it different from a budget?
A budget is an annual plan by month, usually on an accrual basis. A 13-week forecast is short-term and strictly cash-based - it tracks when money actually moves, including the timing of payroll, tax, and collections. The two answer different questions: profitability versus liquidity.
How do I forecast collections accurately?
Drive them from your AR aging and each customer payment history rather than from invoice terms alone. A customer on net-30 terms who reliably pays in 45 days should be modeled at 45. Comparing forecast to actual collections each week steadily improves these assumptions.
How often should I update a 13-week forecast?
Weekly. You refresh the opening cash balance, record what actually happened, roll the window forward one week, and re-project. Updating weekly keeps the forecast anchored to reality; updating monthly defeats the purpose of weekly resolution.
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